Sen. John Cornyn wants to be Senate leader. If he succeeds, it could help him win his next election.
Cornyn has won each of his elections by a comfortable margin, but the incumbent Republican, who first won his seat in 2002, has developed a rocky relationship with the right over the years — one that could invite a serious challenger in 2026.
The MAGA influencer-verse has come out strongly against his leader bid (Tucker Carlson called him an “angry liberal” on X) and has since been joined by several of Texas’ county Republican parties, which published statements saying that their members don’t support their fellow Texan for leader.
In 2026, he’ll be running in an off year when the most active and engaged Republican voters in Texas will have an outsize impact.
“Compromise Cornyn sold Texans out on gun rights, on amnesty for illegal aliens, and countless other issues,” Cary Cheshire, vice chair of the Tarrant County GOP, which came out against Cornyn, told NOTUS in a text message. “He’s proven he is more loyal to the Swamp than to Texas.”
Being the Senate majority leader could mend some fences on the right.
“There’s a small but loud activist contingent that is critical of him,” Texas and DC-based Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak, who is rooting for Cornyn, said. “I think that may subside over time, particularly as if he’s leader, where he’s working closely with Trump. There are bill signings together. He’s meeting at the White House consistently.”
To up the stakes, there is murmuring among Texas politicos that the state’s controversial attorney general, Ken Paxton, a fervent Trump ally and friend of the critical faction of the party, will run against Cornyn. (“It’s out there. It’s not a secret that he’s thinking about doing that,” Brendan Steinhauser, who worked on Cornyn’s 2013 campaign and got his start in FreedomWorks, a nonprofit associated with the Tea Party movement, said.)
“I think that anytime you show up at the Republican Party of Texas convention, you get booed on the stage, you should have some concern,” said Allen West, chair of the Dallas County Republican Party, which similarly moved against Cornyn’s bid for leader, of the senator’s prospects in 2026. He was referencing the 2022 convention when Republicans booed Cornyn for supporting a piece of bipartisan gun legislation passed after the Uvalde shooting.
During his leadership run, Cornyn has made an effort to tout MAGA bona fides. On Tuesday, a “Dear colleagues” letter sent to fellow Republican senators said that “it’s imperative” that the caucus hits “the ground running to implement President Donald Trump’s agenda for the American people.”
“I have already spoken with President Donald Trump, Vice President-elect JD Vance, and the President’s team about their priorities, and I look forward to working with them to revitalize America,” the letter continued.
Cornyn’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
“I think being able to work with Trump and have working groups and do press conferences with him on big-ticket agenda items on the economy and border security, on regulation, I think that will definitely help him,” Steinhauser said. “It’ll remind people about his conservative record, and it’ll create a new conservative record for him.”
Steinhauser is also rooting for Cornyn. He said that though, yes, there are loud detractors, it’s never shown up in election results.
“Cornyn hasn’t really struggled with the right flank of the party, not in Texas. I think the data bears that out,” he said. “I had to run a race in 2014 that, there was a lot of chatter on the right. There was a challenge from a former member of Congress.”
Cornyn won the primary that year by 40 points. Still, that was back when the Tea Party movement was new and insurgent. Now, with MAGA transforming the party, it’s a different situation.
“I don’t see the Texas primary electorate going against a Trump endorsement,” Mackowiak said. “If he were to endorse Paxton and Paxton challenged him, Paxton would be highly likely to win.”
But, Mackowiak pointed out there are a lot of varying factors. Paxton has been floated as a possible Trump administration appointee, and Mackowiak said he also might consider a run for lieutenant governor if the incumbent steps down. Though, if Cornyn were leader and worked closely with Trump, an endorsement would protect him.
“I know the activists believe that he would prefer Paxton. Trump certainly has a very close relationship with Paxton,” Mackowiak said. “A year’s a long time; I think it could change.”
Wayne Hamilton, a longtime Texas operative who has worked for Gov. Greg Abbott and said he’s known Cornyn since he was Texas AG, agreed.
“If Cornyn is able to get through Trump’s agenda very rapidly and is successful at it, that will definitely help him in Texas,” he said. “The main reason why is because I’m sure under that scenario, that President Trump would be very supportive of Sen. Cornyn and any challenge that he might be faced with in the primary.”
While Paxton has not officially commented on the potential for a future showdown, and did not respond to NOTUS’ request for comment, he’s at least implied it’s a possibility.
“It will be difficult for @JohnCornyn to be an effective leader since he is anti-Trump, anti-gun, and will be focused on his highly competitive primary campaign in 2026,” Paxton said. “Republicans deserve better in their next leader and Texans deserve another conservative Senator.”
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